Once-dour NRSC chairman Ensign says GOPers could stay at 49 seats

The Hill
By Aaron Blake
September 18, 2008

Sen. John Ensign isn’t smiling yet, but the frown that has graced his face for much of the past 20 months is gone.
The Senate Republicans’ campaign chief said Wednesday that he’s more optimistic now than he has been at any point in the cycle, and that it’s possible his party could play Democrats to a draw in November.

At a press conference, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) pointed to the momentum created by Republican support for oil drilling and GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin.

He then proceeded to set the bar about four seats higher than where it had previously been.

“I feel better than I did at any time in the past,” the Nevada Republican said. “I used to say that it would be a pretty darn good night if we only lost four seats. … I think it’s possible for us to hold where we are or even just lose one or two seats.”

Ensign has in the past been candid about his sour outlook on the 2008 election, so Wednesday’s comments represented a marked shift.

Staying at 49 seats is a tall order, though, with his candidates trailing by double digits in open seats in New Mexico and Virginia and his committee facing close races for seven other GOP-held seats.

Democrats, meanwhile, continue to talk about a filibuster-proof majority, which would require a gain of nine seats. On Wednesday, former President Bill Clinton sent a fundraising e-mail, titled simply “60,” on behalf of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).

But Ensign insisted the worm has begun to turn and even said his reluctant colleagues have begun to step up to the plate with their contributions.

In August, Ensign released a statement chastising his GOP colleagues for their lack of financial support. He was forced to shrink the NRSC’s budget as a result.

He said those contributions began to roll in recently, with Sens. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) and John Cornyn (R-Texas) giving $250,000, Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) sending $200,000 and Sen. Kit Bond (R-Mo.) giving $150,000.

The NRSC later said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) contributed $260,000 and Sens. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) and Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) each gave $100,000.

Those come on top of the $300,000 Ensign said he personally gave the committee.

Ensign announced that the committee raised $5.1 million in August and that it is on pace to have $12-13 million more to spend on races than it had in the 2006 cycle, when it lost six seats. But the committee still faced an $18 million disadvantage in cash on hand at the end of July.

The NRSC chairman also made a point Wednesday to say that his committee remains supportive of indicted Sen. Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), who faces a tough reelection battle with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D) at the same time as his federal corruption trial.

Ensign said twice that Stevens is innocent until proven guilty. He declined to say whether the NRSC would send staff to the state or spend money on the race, saying he didn’t want to “telegraph” anything.

The DSCC went up with its first ad buy in Alaska on Tuesday, and the race has polled within the margin of error in recent days, making it a prime candidate for national help.

“The trial’s outside of our control,” Ensign said. “Everybody in America’s innocent till proven guilty, and the trial’s going to take its own separate tack.

“Our job at that point is just to make sure that we’re supporting Ted, which we are.”

Ensign said he felt the momentum shifting in Republicans’ favor in August, as the drilling issue began to take hold. He said Democrats nearly took it back with a strong convention in late August, but that the Palin pick gave the GOP another boost.

He cited the change in the generic congressional ballot, which showed Democrats ahead by double digits for the vast majority of the cycle and now shows the margin in single digits.

“What Sarah Palin has done for our side is what Barack Obama has done for their side,” Ensign said, referring to the increase in GOP enthusiasm. “It’s also made a lot of people take a second look at the Republican Party and the Republican message.”

DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said the momentum shift is a figment of Ensign’s imagination.

“In the past month, their incumbents in Oregon, Minnesota and North Carolina have all lost their leads, and in other Republican-held states, we continue to lead by healthy margins,” Miller said. “We expect races to be close as we get down to the wire, but there’s no indication and no proof that [the] environment nationally has shifted a bit.”