August 4, 2008
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican

John McCain would have been favored to win Kentucky, a conservative-leaning state on the northern fringe of the South, even if Barack Obama had done better in the May 20 Democratic primary that he lost overwhelmingly to Hillary Rodham Clinton . Although politically competitive for many down-ballot offices, Kentucky has shown repeatedly that it doesn’t care for Democratic presidential nominees, especially those not from the South.

Kentucky last went for a non-Southern Democratic presidential nominee in 1952, when another Illinois Democrat, Adlai E. Stevenson, narrowly won the state against Dwight D. Eisenhower. Republicans have carried Kentucky in nine of the past 13 presidential elections dating to 1956, with Democrats winning only with Texan Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Georgia’s Jimmy Carter in 1976, and Bill Clinton of Arkansas in 1992 and 1996.

With Kentucky unlikely to emerge as a presidential battleground state, the political focus in the state will be on Sen. Mitch McConnell , leader of the 49-member Republican minority, who is seeking a fifth term. McConnell in 2005 became the longest-serving Republican senator in the state’s history; no Kentucky senator has ever won five six-year terms.

McConnell’s Democratic opponent is Bruce Lunsford, the wealthy founder of a nursing home chain and twice-unsuccessful candidate for the Kentucky governorship. In a year in which voters in general express disapproval of both President Bush and Congress, Lunsford’s campaign pivots on a theme that McConnell is Bush’s “chief architect in the Senate” — echoing arguments by Democratic support groups that McConnell is the Senate’s “obstructionist in chief.”

McConnell’s operation, in turn, already has begun linking Lunsford to Obama as a symbol of Democratic Party liberalism, with references to “Obama-Lunsford” energy policies. McConnell’s high profile and easy access to campaign cash, countered by Lunsford’s vast personal wealth, should make the Kentucky Senate race one of the most expensive in the nation. CQ Politics rates the race Republican Favored.

The state’s most competitive House race probably will be in the Louisville-based 3rd District, where the Democrats will be playing defense. Freshman Democrat John Yarmuth faces a rematch with former five-term Rep. Anne M. Northup, the Republican he unseated in 2006. The district is Kentucky’s most urban and Democratic-leaning. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democratic.

A competitive Democratic takeover bid may yet emerge in the state’s 2nd District, which includes Bowling Green and other territory in west-central Kentucky that has a strong conservative lean. Veteran Republican Ron Lewis is retiring, and Democratic state Sen. David Boswell is waging a serious, if uphill, campaign in a district that backed Bush four years ago with 65 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee is Brett Guthrie, also a state senator. CQ Politics currently considers this race Safe Republican.